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논문분류	춘계학술대회 초록집
제목	Validation and Assessment of Kidney failure risk equations in Korean population
저자	Min Woo Kang1, So Hee Oh3, Yong Chul Kim1, Jung Nam Ahn2, Navdeep Tangri4, Yoon Kyu Oh2, Kwon Wook Joo1, Yeon Soo Kim1, Chun Soo Im2, Jung Pyo Lee2
출판정보	2018; 2018(1):
키워드	CKD \| ESRD \| prediction model
초록	Objectives: Predicting the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) may facilitate early and appropriate nephrology care of CKD patients. Previously, kidney failure risk equations were developed in Canadian population and validated in more than 30 countries spanning 4 continents. However, there is no validation data in Korean population. Thus, we attmped to evaluate the accuracy of the risk equations in Korean population and to adjust the equation. Methods: SNU cohort, including 1386 patients with CKD in Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) and Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center (SNUBMC), were studied. These cohorts collected data from 2001 through 2016. With the risk factors from the original risk equations, hazard ratios were estimated in SNU cohort and used to adjust the equation. The time horizon for risk prediction was 5 years. We used three risk prediction equations, 4-variable, 6-variable and 8-variable equations. Then, these three equations were evaluated using AUROC for the goodness of a predictor, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) for discrimination, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) at 5 years. Results: The mean age of the study population was 58 years, and the mean baseline eGFR was 73 mL/min/1.73m2. The three risk prediction equations showed great performance of prediction (AUROC, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.88-0.94 at 4-variable equation, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.88-0.94 at 6-variable equation, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.89-0.94 at 8-variable equation). Using DeLong test, 4-variable equation and 6-variable equation were compared with at 8-variable equation. There was no improvement in performance with 8-variable equation (4-variable equation vs 8-variable equation, p=0.068 and 6-variable equation vs 8-variable equation, p=0.080). Conclusions: Adjusted Kidney failure risk equation showed high performance of prediction in Korean population. However, further verification in a larger cohort may be necessary in the future.
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